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Dr Bodge #1 Posted 03 August 2016 - 03:43 PM

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After some length analysis I am now in a position to uncover my latest findings. I have been struggling for a while for a way to assess the impact of the various equipment and consumables on performance and, after a long search, I have found a way to do this.

 

Method

Tanks are broadly balanced into tiers but each tank has a different combination of characteristics*. Those with thick armour sacrifice speed and those with high Alpha tend to have reductions to other stats (perhaps DPM, perhaps Aim time). I used the data for the Xbox version of the game made available by emperordennis (Thank you!).The data structure lends itself to a simple linear model through which we can assess the relative value of each of the different parameters describing a tank. When we do this we find a relatively stable model**. The table below shows how closely each of the following stats is associated with tier. The easiest way to express this is by showing how much of an increase in (effective) tier would be associated with a 10% increase in each of the main tank parameters. Wherever possible I have used the original (raw) variable but in most cases the log-transformation fits much better. We have included on tanks from tier 5 and above, also excluding light and premium tanks (due to difference in MM).

 

* I am aware that not all tanks are equally well balanced but these deviations are too minor to have much of an effect on this kind of method.

** I experimented extensively to ensure that the findings were robust and I found that the relative size of the effect varied very little as the structure of the model changed.

 

 

This model is very stable with regard to which variables are included. We find that Dispersion almost never shows any strong association with tier and so we have removed it. One weakness is the lack of availability of data on camouflage and ground resistance values. Since these tend to be correlated with tank class it seems likely that some of their effect will be captured by the View Range and Speed variables, slightly inflating their importance. The method is also looking for general effects and so the importance of certain parameters will vary from tank to tank although the overall patterns appear fairly robust.

 

Results

We can then take these findings and use it to compare the relative impact of various ways of improving the performance on a given tank. The main options include the use of premium ammo, consumables and equipment. This method could also easily be extended to rank the value of different crew skills. In the second graph we compare the relative effectiveness of each of the most popular enhancements.

 

 

Conclusions

We can see that the effectiveness of your tank can be significantly enhanced by the various method listed above. I would conclude that if you can afford to use premium ammo you should do so since it makes your tank almost half a tier more effective. It is difficult to overstate the impact this could have on results. I feel the benefits are clearly too profound to take the decision (not to use premium ammo) lightly. The effect of food consumables is also clearly nowhere near as marginal as is often claimed.

 

The combination of premium ammo and food will, when used together, raise your tanks effectiveness to a level much more typical of the tier above. Given that few players can afford to use both of these without premium membership this analysis illustrates that, while WoT falls well short of being Pay-To-Win, players unwilling to invest in the game are at a measurable disadvantage.

 

The findings also demonstrate that saving money by failing to properly equip your tanks is a false economy as it will be very likely to negatively affect your performance. Focusing your resources on a subset of your garage rather than half-equipping all your tanks should lead to improved results.

 

We can see that the difference between GLD, Rammer and Vert Stabs is sufficiently minor as to be a matter of personal preference, but that the Optics and Vents look to be stronger choices overall. We also see that BIA is likely to be one of the most important crew skills (after Sixth Sense of course).

 


Edited by Dr Bodge, 04 August 2016 - 07:59 AM.

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emperordennis #2 Posted 03 August 2016 - 04:03 PM

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Very interesting read and well done :)

 

I do have on question though:

When calculating the values associated with crew skill (food/vents/bia), did you reduce the parameters by a raw 5%? Crew skill is only a part of the formula so that would not be correct.

Other than that, great work!


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the metronome #3 Posted 03 August 2016 - 04:04 PM

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Guess I'm gonna have to swap out vstab and glds for vents now. Interesting. 

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Dr Bodge #4 Posted 03 August 2016 - 04:08 PM

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View Postemperordennis, on 03 August 2016 - 04:03 PM, said:

Very interesting read and well done :)

 

I do have on question though:

When calculating the values associated with crew skill (food/vents/bia), did you reduce the parameters by a raw 5%? Crew skill is only a part of the formula so that would not be correct.

Other than that, great work!

 

No, I (believe) I used roughly the correct correction i.e. a +5% change in crew skill leads to a chance in +2.2% change in actual performance.

 


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Schneller WGA #5 Posted 03 August 2016 - 10:42 PM

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thanks for the contribution to the community! 

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the metronome #6 Posted 05 August 2016 - 03:04 AM

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Did you look at the effects of binocs and camo net as well?

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Dr Bodge #7 Posted 05 August 2016 - 07:58 AM

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View Postthe metronome, on 05 August 2016 - 03:04 AM, said:

Did you look at the effects of binocs and camo net as well?

 

No. The method I have used doesn't really lend itself to features that aren't simply bonuses to basic tank parameters. Both binos and camo nets are not continually active so can't be considered as simple 25% boosts. Something like Sixth Sense would also be impossible to assess using this method because it doesn't boost any basic parameter. At some point in the future I may attempt to study each of these but it would most likely have to be done by simply comparing performance with and without them. Until then you will have to make do with opinions. For the record my opinions are that:

  • Binos are probably a better overall choice for Scouts and tanks with good camo. For most tanks though, particularly those with poor camo or likely to be played aggressively, Optics are almost certainly better. 
  • Camo nets aren't quite as useful when you reach higher tiers. There is a very narrow window in which you need them to remain hidden AND are able to get into position AND set them up without being spotted. With the exception of dedicated campers I think they are probably less valuable than other equipment and I use them less and less these days (even in Light tanks).

 

View PostSchneller WGA, on 03 August 2016 - 10:42 PM, said:

thanks for the contribution to the community! 

 

You're welcome!


Edited by Dr Bodge, 05 August 2016 - 07:59 AM.

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mockney_piers #8 Posted 05 August 2016 - 08:13 AM

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Very useful thanks.

Should I swap out toolbox for optics in some of my (brawling) heavies then?



emperordennis #9 Posted 12 August 2016 - 10:26 PM

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View Postmockney_piers, on 05 August 2016 - 08:13 AM, said:

Very useful thanks.

Should I swap out toolbox for optics in some of my (brawling) heavies then?

 

Maybe a bit late on the reply, but here goes anyway:

 

I would say no. Although optics are useful on all tanks, you have to compare your options. If I understand Bodge correctly, using optics changes your view range in such a way that you perform roughly 0.10 above your tier. However, this increased performance is only for view range, and not things for reloading. 

 

So it comes down to: do you want to have a brawling heavy with better optics? Since brawling is close up, I would say that it is not needed. However toolbox can save your life if you are tracked in a bad position. 


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the metronome #10 Posted 13 August 2016 - 03:15 AM

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If you've got a good crew with the repairs and track maintenance skills trained, I would go with optics instead of toolkit. That's how I equip most of them. Maybe gun laying drive depending on how crap the aim time is. 

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Lasting__Damage #11 Posted 15 August 2016 - 08:00 PM

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THANK YOU.

 

I am grateful that people like you take the time to share their knowledge.

 

 


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Dr Bodge #12 Posted 16 August 2016 - 04:37 PM

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View Postemperordennis, on 12 August 2016 - 10:26 PM, said:

 

Maybe a bit late on the reply, but here goes anyway:

 

I would say no. Although optics are useful on all tanks, you have to compare your options. If I understand Bodge correctly, using optics changes your view range in such a way that you perform roughly 0.10 above your tier. However, this increased performance is only for view range, and not things for reloading. 

 

So it comes down to: do you want to have a brawling heavy with better optics? Since brawling is close up, I would say that it is not needed. However toolbox can save your life if you are tracked in a bad position. 

 

Yes, the Emporer is correct. The difference between tiers is that most stats improve e.g. More hit points, alpha damage, Dpm. If we can boost the stats of a tier 5 tank enough it will effectively become a tier 6 and so on. The 0.1 tier boost you gain from optics only affects view range, but by comparing tanks across types and classes we are able to estimate its value in terms of winning games. The precise value does depend on play styles but the single biggest advantage you can get over another tanks is seeing them before they see you allowing you to take free damage. Particularly when it comes to closing out tight matches view range is incredibly important, especially for big blind heavy tanks.


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mockney_piers #13 Posted 17 August 2016 - 07:39 AM

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so you disagree with emperor? I'm confused.

 

It's basically between avoiding perma-tracking during middle game (toolbox) and getting an edge in end game (optics).

Can a big blind heavy tank ever get enough of an edge vs a TD?

 

Hmmm...will stick with toolbox for the time being, though I'm sure there will be situations where optics would have been handy, I think the toolbox is handier most games.



emperordennis #14 Posted 17 August 2016 - 08:23 AM

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View Postmockney_piers, on 17 August 2016 - 07:39 AM, said:

so you disagree with emperor? I'm confused.

 

It's basically between avoiding perma-tracking during middle game (toolbox) and getting an edge in end game (optics).

Can a big blind heavy tank ever get enough of an edge vs a TD?

 

Hmmm...will stick with toolbox for the time being, though I'm sure there will be situations where optics would have been handy, I think the toolbox is handier most games.

 

I think I do yes.

Bodge is right when he says optics are important, and I would say that they are a smart choice.

However, I play my brawlers at such a close range that 90% of the time they wouldn't matter. So for my playstyle the question would be: would I want to add optics for late game (where they are VERY useful), or do I want a toolbox that I use during a large part of the mid game when I get tracked in a bad corner position for example.

 

But that said. They are both good, but for different reasons.


Edited by emperordennis, 17 August 2016 - 08:26 AM.

Very good guide: Beta582's Guide to Everything

 

All WoT Console tank characteristics (including hidden stats): WoT Console Encyclopedia

 


Dr Bodge #15 Posted 17 August 2016 - 05:10 PM

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View Postmockney_piers, on 17 August 2016 - 07:39 AM, said:

so you disagree with emperor? I'm confused.

 

It's basically between avoiding perma-tracking during middle game (toolbox) and getting an edge in end game (optics).

Can a big blind heavy tank ever get enough of an edge vs a TD?

 

Hmmm...will stick with toolbox for the time being, though I'm sure there will be situations where optics would have been handy, I think the toolbox is handier most games.

 

sorry for being unclear. I meant I agree with the Emporer regarding his interpretation of my findings. I did use a toolbox a lot in my earlier days as it was one of the few pieces of equipment that didn't require gold to uninstall. The case for toolbox is stronger before your crew gain the repair skill, especially if you can't afford a repair kit. These days I tend to prefer optics as my crews are more experienced and I do use repair kits. Furthermore it is not always possible to play a heavy as a pure, front line heavy (when not top tier for instance) and in this context view range is likely to be more important.  I would recommend trying both and seeing which ruined your game more often, dying through perma-tracking or lack of view range. 
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mockney_piers #16 Posted 19 August 2016 - 01:18 AM

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Cheers chaps. Obviously I'm only talking about brawling heavies, I have vents, optics and v stabs on my liberte for instance.
I totally see what you mean re skills and perks. I ways remove camo once I have the skill. Likewise I'll probably get rid of toolbox once repair and track mechanic are up and running... Except in my AT-15a, live and die by those seconds

Dr Bodge #17 Posted 19 August 2016 - 10:16 AM

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Part 2: Effective Tier & Performance

 

At the beginning of this thread I demonstrated the link between tank tier and parameter values. Increases in stats can be interpreted in terms of increased effective tier. This is an intuitive way to view enhancements, being tier independent and we have a good sense of what being top or bottom tier feels like in a game. But we can go further and evaluate the impact of tier differences on actual performance, as measured by damage and WR. As it happens I have recorded the outcomes of nearly 200 battles across a range of tanks, classes and tiers. One of the parameters I recorded was the relative tier i.e. was I top, middle or bottom tier in the battle. I am therefore able to compare the damage recorded in each of those three states.

 

Relative Tier vs DPG

For each battle I recorded all relevant data including damage caused and relative tier. None of these matches were played in platoons and no food or premium ammo was used. The damage was standardised by tank and premium tanks were removed from the analysis due to preferential MM.

 

We observed a similar relationship across classes and tiers with a significant increase in damage with increasing tier (see above). Statistical analysis indicates that an increase (of +1) in effective tier is associated with a 22% (4.4 to 43%) increase in damage.

 

DPG and WR

The next question is what increase in WR we might associate with such an increase in damage. To determine this I revisit my PC data. In the graph below we see the relationship between DPG and WR across a wide range of non-premium medium tanks, heavy tanks and TDs from tier 8 played solo for at least 200 games. We see a strong, but by no means precise relationship between (standardised) damage and WR but the size of the effect is very stable between tanks (and classes).

 

When we examine this (using linear models) we find that the 22% increase in DPG should be associated with an increase in WR of very close to 2.4%. In other words a tank should have a 2-3% higher WR when top tier than when mid-tier and so on. Combining this new result with my previous work (see original post in this thread) gives the following estimates the likely effect of the enhancements on WR and DPG (see below). Combining the benefits of Premium Ammo and Food gives a 13.6% boost in DPG which equates to a 1.5% boost in WR.

 

 

Relative Tier and WN8

The final step of this process is to estimate how much of an effect this will have on WN8. This is not such a simple calculation as the benefit on DPG. The damage increase and WR increase together create a non-linear effect meaning that the link between DPG and WN8 is not straightforward to calculate. However we can illustrate the relationship between WN8 and DPG from my PC dataset (see below).

 

 

Based on our line of best fit we can estimate the effect on WN8 of a given boost in (standardised) DPG. We have previously calculated that the use of Premium and Food should give a boost of around 14% in DPG. The associated increase in WN8 we would expect to see is around 22%.

 


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the metronome #18 Posted 19 August 2016 - 11:44 AM

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You, sir, are a gentleman and a scholar. 

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Lasting__Damage #19 Posted 20 August 2016 - 12:56 AM

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View PostDr Bodge, on 19 August 2016 - 10:16 AM, said:

Part 2: Effective Tier & Performance

 

At the beginning of this thread I demonstrated the link between tank tier and parameter values. Increases in stats can be interpreted in terms of increased effective tier. This is an intuitive way to view enhancements, being tier independent and we have a good sense of what being top or bottom tier feels like in a game. But we can go further and evaluate the impact of tier differences on actual performance, as measured by damage and WR. As it happens I have recorded the outcomes of nearly 200 battles across a range of tanks, classes and tiers. One of the parameters I recorded was the relative tier i.e. was I top, middle or bottom tier in the battle. I am therefore able to compare the damage recorded in each of those three states.

 

Relative Tier vs DPG

For each battle I recorded all relevant data including damage caused and relative tier. None of these matches were played in platoons and no food or premium ammo was used. The damage was standardised by tank and premium tanks were removed from the analysis due to preferential MM.

 

We observed a similar relationship across classes and tiers with a significant increase in damage with increasing tier (see above). Statistical analysis indicates that an increase (of +1) in effective tier is associated with a 22% (4.4 to 43%) increase in damage.

 

DPG and WR

The next question is what increase in WR we might associate with such an increase in damage. To determine this I revisit my PC data. In the graph below we see the relationship between DPG and WR across a wide range of non-premium medium tanks, heavy tanks and TDs from tier 8 played solo for at least 200 games. We see a strong, but by no means precise relationship between (standardised) damage and WR but the size of the effect is very stable between tanks (and classes).

 

When we examine this (using linear models) we find that the 22% increase in DPG should be associated with an increase in WR of very close to 2.4%. In other words a tank should have a 2-3% higher WR when top tier than when mid-tier and so on. Combining this new result with my previous work (see original post in this thread) gives the following estimates the likely effect of the enhancements on WR and DPG (see below). Combining the benefits of Premium Ammo and Food gives a 13.6% boost in DPG which equates to a 1.5% boost in WR.

 

 

Relative Tier and WN8

The final step of this process is to estimate how much of an effect this will have on WN8. This is not such a simple calculation as the benefit on DPG. The damage increase and WR increase together create a non-linear effect meaning that the link between DPG and WN8 is not straightforward to calculate. However we can illustrate the relationship between WN8 and DPG from my PC dataset (see below).

 

 

Based on our line of best fit we can estimate the effect on WN8 of a given boost in (standardised) DPG. We have previously calculated that the use of Premium and Food should give a boost of around 14% in DPG. The associated increase in WN8 we would expect to see is around 22%.

 

As someone who does not have any well trained crew, do you think it is wise to purchase food sparingly? It is 50 gold, but it does seem to really impact a tanker's effectiveness on the battlefield. At the moment I am parked between tier IV-V and trying to aquire crew skills. I have used the nation drops on my Soviet crews in order to get some Prem time as well as the rations and really notice an improvement on my tank in game. 

 

I just oust wanted to thank you again and let you know that your map guide and this one is very appreciated by a new console player like me, I can only imagine the time it takes to post these and want you to know I read them over and over...the map guides are amazing and a resource WG should try to make as visible as possible in the general section of the forum.


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pingwrx #20 Posted 21 August 2016 - 02:52 PM

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View PostLasting__Damage, on 19 August 2016 - 04:56 PM, said:

As someone who does not have any well trained crew, do you think it is wise to purchase food sparingly? It is 50 gold, but it does seem to really impact a tanker's effectiveness on the battlefield. At the moment I am parked between tier IV-V and trying to aquire crew skills. I have used the nation drops on my Soviet crews in order to get some Prem time as well as the rations and really notice an improvement on my tank in game.

 

I just oust wanted to thank you again and let you know that your map guide and this one is very appreciated by a new console player like me, I can only imagine the time it takes to post these and want you to know I read them over and over...the map guides are amazing and a resource WG should try to make as visible as possible in the general section of the forum.

 

You do know you can pay for food or premium ammo with silver instead of gold by pressing y on the xbox or the triangle on ps4.


 






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