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Shockwave IIC #1 Posted 29 September 2016 - 05:34 PM

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Everyone seems to complain about how bad thier teams are/ have been, and that got me wondering as to if the forum elite are suffering from a reverse of the Dunning Kruger effect - Because they find something easy, they fail to appreciate how difficult something actually is - So while bored at work my mind wondered and well here are some numbers about the likelihood about seeing "bad" players - aka Joe Average

 

Lets assume an active player base of 10,000 players to help keep numbers easy, according to WN8 of those 10,000 players the breakdown will be the following


1 player will be a Super Unicum
9 players will be Unicum
90 players will be rated as "Great Players"
400 players are Very Good  < - This is where WN8 puts me
1300 players are just Good
1500 players are Above Average - This and above is where I'd expect most of the "forumers" to be
The rest of the players (some 6300) have are expected to have a sub 50% win Rate and Sub 900 WN8

 

As you can see, slightly more than 1 in 3 players will be rated as "Above Average", less if you're one of the Elite who think the "Above Average" are also awful (if you do, it's almost 1 in 5)

 

If we break that down in to whats in your team on any given game
1 Player will probably be a "Very Good Player" or better (Otherwise will be just "Good" )
2  Players will be Good
2 Players will be Above Average
10 Players (The rest of the team) will come from the pool of 6300, Sub 50%, Sub 900 WN8 players

 

I wanted to do a comparison between these player types and the average damage each will do if driving a particular tank (I was thinking Tier 8 Premium, Centennial being that it's topical at the moment) - But I am unable to find vehicle WN8 stats while at work

 

So, food for thought, and that your so called "potato" teams aren't, they are in fact your average team. so maybe you should start expecting less from them?

 

I'd add something at a later point about what average players believe is good equipment for a tank


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killer etzi0 #2 Posted 29 September 2016 - 05:39 PM

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"So, food for thought, and that your so called "potato" teams aren't, they are in fact your average team. so maybe you should start expecting less from them?"

 

 

interesting observation, but point of fact though, I think most of us here already are "expecting less from them" :sceptic:


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IAmJonReaper #3 Posted 29 September 2016 - 05:46 PM

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View Postkiller etzi0, on 29 September 2016 - 09:39 AM, said:

"So, food for thought, and that your so called "potato" teams aren't, they are in fact your average team. so maybe you should start expecting less from them?"

 

 

interesting observation, but point of fact though, I think most of us here already are "expecting less from them" :sceptic:

 

I was going to same something along the same lines as this. We already expect less and we still get less than that a lot of the time. 

 

 


TBhCannibalChow #4 Posted 29 September 2016 - 05:48 PM

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Had a platoon of 3 ELC AMXs jump off a cliff...why should I expect more from them?

themikegolf #5 Posted 29 September 2016 - 05:49 PM

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SWAG


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JesterUSMC #6 Posted 29 September 2016 - 05:56 PM

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I expect so little from my team already.

 

I am constantly disappointed anyway.


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putinondafoil #7 Posted 29 September 2016 - 07:35 PM

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If I start to expect less of them, then half my team will forget to breathe, pass out and possibly die. Good bye player base.
You can wish in one hand and crap in the other. See which fills up first. :playing:

FATAL ASSERTION #8 Posted 29 September 2016 - 07:37 PM

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You guys are using half measures to solve the perception problem.  Don't expect "so little" that you're still disappointed when you find even less.  You should know by now to expect literally nothing, and you will find pleasant surprise 10% of the time.


pr0fit0fcanabis #9 Posted 29 September 2016 - 07:41 PM

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Nice analysis. I agree.  

Sou1forge #10 Posted 29 September 2016 - 07:48 PM

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Just because the average is horrible doesn't mean people shouldn't be held to a higher standard. I was doing my health back and more by my 2000th game.

Knobchuck #11 Posted 29 September 2016 - 07:53 PM

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Ouch this is a slap in the face for some people.

Ttone5722 #12 Posted 29 September 2016 - 08:07 PM

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View PostFATAL ASSERTION, on 29 September 2016 - 12:37 PM, said:

You guys are using half measures to solve the perception problem.  Don't expect "so little" that you're still disappointed when you find even less.  You should know by now to expect literally nothing, and you will find pleasant surprise 10% of the time.

 

^This. 

 

To the people saying "I don't expect much, still disappointed" , I've got news for you: 

 

You're setting the bar too high :trollface:



mcnoople #13 Posted 29 September 2016 - 08:24 PM

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If I am a top 100 of 10K skill player then I really feel bad for the playerbase.  Really blueberry stats are not that hard to achieve and maintain.  I don't even run the so called easiums that often.  I did play 1 losing match in the lor 40T the other night that was worth 6400 wn8, guess it should be my stat padder.

290+ tanks played haven't caught 'em all yet  539543

 

Think you are the best at WOT this link might explain why you are so good at this game.  

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect


Shockwave IIC #14 Posted 29 September 2016 - 08:31 PM

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The following is taken from the World of Tanks Xbox English Face Book group

 

Topic - What equipment are people using, prefer for the Cent' 95?

 

Here are the following replies

- Gun Rammer, Vents - Then either Optics or Spall Liner

- Gun Rammer, V-Stab, Gun Laying

- Gun Rammer, Vents, Optics    Self proclaimed "Best Medium Loadout"

- Gun Rammer, V-Stabs, Vents

- Gun Rammer, V-Stabs, Optics

- Gun Rammer, Optics, Vents

- No equipment - Good enough without.....

 

The first 4 were the only ones with up votes (Though not many). The rarity of V-Stabs help shows that "Joe Average" perhaps doesn't have as much knowledge about equipment as "forumers" seem to assume.

 

If someone could link me to the vehicle WN8 site that would be great.


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Rubbelito #15 Posted 29 September 2016 - 08:34 PM

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View PostShockwave IIC, on 29 September 2016 - 10:31 PM, said:

 

If someone could link me to the vehicle WN8 site that would be great.

 

Not sure if you mean this one?

http://www.targetdamage.com


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SolidGoldCrown #16 Posted 29 September 2016 - 08:41 PM

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Have you calculated how many of those players don't care for the bar being set and feel no compulsion to compete in the manner desired? If not, you are attempting to reason in factors which don't even belong in consideration.

Perhaps what you are labelling as a potato does not view its own existence as such. The label has no meaning outside the view of a limited number of players.


Edited by SolidGoldCrown, 29 September 2016 - 08:48 PM.

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Shockwave IIC #17 Posted 29 September 2016 - 09:03 PM

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View PostSolidGoldCrown, on 29 September 2016 - 08:41 PM, said:

Have you calculated how many of those players don't care for the bar being set and feel no compulsion to compete in the manner desired? If not, you are attempting to reason in factors which don't even belong in consideration.

No, and why should I? My point is not about their performance, but more about your/our/ The forums expectation of their performance

View PostRubbelito, on 29 September 2016 - 08:34 PM, said:

 

Not sure if you mean this one?

http://www.targetdamage.com

Yes, thank you - Though I understand it is for PC

 

If we look at the Caernarvon - Tier 8 Brit with 230 Av Dam (FYI the Centennial has a Av Dam of 240)

 

Unicums need to average out 1800 Damage, thats 8 Penning hits AND 1 Penning hit over the health of the tank itself (1600)

Blue Players (Very good and Great) 1450 - Six Penning hits

Green - 4 hits with a bit of RNG  - 950 Av - 975 to hit target

JA and his friends - 3 Penning hits

 

When top tier JA might be able to get 4 or even 5, when bottom probably 0.


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UngainlyTitan1 #18 Posted 29 September 2016 - 09:10 PM

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View Postmcnoople, on 29 September 2016 - 08:24 PM, said:

If I am a top 100 of 10K skill player then I really feel bad for the playerbase.  Really blueberry stats are not that hard to achieve and maintain.  I don't even run the so called easiums that often.  I did play 1 losing match in the lor 40T the other night that was worth 6400 wn8, guess it should be my stat padder.

 

They may not be hard for you, however, if they were easy everyone would have them. That is why they are 3 and 4 step above average. The flip side of the Dunning Kruger effect is often that people who are good do not realise how hard other people have to struggle to do the same thing.


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zeus 171 #19 Posted 29 September 2016 - 10:00 PM

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I saw a 3 man platoon of Maus tanks go valley on Lakeville last night.    So...yeah.....

FATAL ASSERTION #20 Posted 29 September 2016 - 10:32 PM

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This is my favorite game for 1 vs 29 multiplayer action.





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