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Causally keeping track....


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killer etzi0 #1 Posted 26 May 2019 - 03:23 AM

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So, from a general causal stand point, I've kept track of how the battles have gone the past couple of days. The "blow-outs" are running 2 - 1 vs what I would consider a close/fun game. Another words, 2 blowout one sided battles for every 1 decent fun battle.

 

Yup... another MM-RNG rant thread.

 

Go figure. 


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Tempest fox3 #2 Posted 26 May 2019 - 04:00 AM

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I simply don't see the issue others seem to have. The vast majority of my games are very close calls recently. Often coming down to one or two shots being the decider.

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Fishfood50 #3 Posted 26 May 2019 - 07:12 AM

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I've never believed this tin foil hat theory, even though mathematically we should get most games being "blow-outs" . So I'm going to check my log and see what the last few games were.

This will be a kill count

13-6

15-8

15-8

15-14

15-8

15-10

11-9

13-13

15-3 Hey we found one

15-12

 

So from my last 10 games we have 1 blow-out, something is wrong as there should be more by the maths.



Dyslexsticks #4 Posted 26 May 2019 - 07:23 AM

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I gotta admit most of the games I've played have lasted a while too, not so much roflstomping as I'd have come to expect.

 

I think I may have seen more where our team are the ones stomping actually and even then it's been like...4 times this past week total blowouts?


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kromhout55 #5 Posted 26 May 2019 - 07:24 AM

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Well I did experience one match yesterday that went the whole length of the battle time to end in a 15:14 win for us.

But that was the only one in the whole day's play.

The rest were the usual blow-outs with most of the swings being on the defeat side of things for moi.

So I'm a bit envious of those fellow tankers who are actually getting some enjotment out of playing at the moment.

Good on you. :)



Fishfood50 #6 Posted 26 May 2019 - 07:36 AM

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Had another "blow-out", but it was a very good game. Malinovka -Assault and our team did their job for once, we defended with only a few tanks pushing forward for spotting and keeping them on their toes, it was one of the best assault games I've ever had. See if your team plays like a team this is what should happen.

killer etzi0 #7 Posted 26 May 2019 - 12:21 PM

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View PostFishfood50, on 26 May 2019 - 01:12 AM, said:

I've never believed this tin foil hat theory, even though mathematically we should get most games being "blow-outs" . So I'm going to check my log and see what the last few games were.

This will be a kill count

13-6

15-8

15-8

15-14

15-8

15-10

11-9

13-13

15-3 Hey we found one

15-12

 

So from my last 10 games we have 1 blow-out, something is wrong as there should be more by the maths.

 

I took the time to detail my results like this a couple of months back, ended up in a long debate about what a "blow out-one sided" battles was/is.

 

The other factor I left out of my OP was just how quick some of these battles are over. From the games I played yesterday only ONE was due to a quick cap out in a Encounter Match, all the other quick games where blow outs.


Edited by killer etzi0, 26 May 2019 - 12:41 PM.

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Desantnik81 #8 Posted 26 May 2019 - 12:32 PM

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View PostFishfood50, on 26 May 2019 - 07:12 AM, said:

I've never believed this tin foil hat theory, even though mathematically we should get most games being "blow-outs" . So I'm going to check my log and see what the last few games were.

This will be a kill count

13-6

15-8

15-8

15-14

15-8

15-10

11-9

13-13

15-3 Hey we found one

15-12

 

So from my last 10 games we have 1 blow-out, something is wrong as there should be more by the maths.

I see 5 blow outs here. But we can have a different perspective what does blow out mean. 



BULLPUPBAKERST1 #9 Posted 26 May 2019 - 12:34 PM

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View PostFishfood50, on 26 May 2019 - 02:12 AM, said:

I've never believed this tin foil hat theory, even though mathematically we should get most games being "blow-outs" . So I'm going to check my log and see what the last few games were.

This will be a kill count

13-6

15-8

15-8

15-14

15-8

15-10

11-9

13-13

15-3 Hey we found one

15-12

 

So from my last 10 games we have 1 blow-out, something is wrong as there should be more by the maths.

 

I think a lot of folks would consider the 15-8 battles a blowout, or at least on the cusp of blowout...not I though. Like Etzio says though, that discussion already devolved into monotonous debate. 

 

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Chalupacobra #10 Posted 26 May 2019 - 12:56 PM

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It doesn’t help with some 4 or 5 man platoons that are bottom tier and just rush out there to die. Had a few of them last night.

PumpkinEcobar #11 Posted 26 May 2019 - 01:44 PM

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Anyone have a link to that old post where someone a whole lot smarter than me mathematically broke down why blow outs happen so easily?

And no, 15-8 is not a blow out.

Fishfood50 #12 Posted 26 May 2019 - 02:51 PM

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View PostBULLPUPBAKERST1, on 26 May 2019 - 12:34 PM, said:

 

I think a lot of folks would consider the 15-8 battles a blowout, or at least on the cusp of blowout...not I though. Like Etzio says though, that discussion already devolved into monotonous debate. 

 

You start calling 15-8 a blow-out you might as well just say the game is pointless. The maths dictates that once you are one tank up it becomes easier to extend the lead. This means that very tight games, say 3 or less left on both sides, shouldn't happen all that often.

So we shouldn't bother too much about how many tanks die on each side, but maybe looking at how long games go for might be more interesting and/or informative. 

The game I just played lasted 7:40 and I'll keep track of results and time for the next 10 games. Might take me longer than 10 games due to the fact I might be pissed off with an idiot team and quit when I die, but I'll try and be good. Since I'm trying to finish arty lines it might not be too bad, all games will be in a T9.

Results:

  1. 15-12 and 7:40 (Time played not left)
  2. 15-13 and 8:30
  3. 15-7 and 6:10
  4. 13-5 and 4:05, they attacked en masse down one side, well played. Still give you a blow out 
  5. 15-6 and 5:30, borderline IMO, but give it to the moaners.
  6. 10-6 and 5:25 , includes 2-1 suicides and just a terrible game.  Worse than a blow-out so 3 in a row.
  7. 15-8 and 5:35
  8. 15-7 and 6:25
  9. 15-12 and 9:15
  10. 13-9 and 5:10

So 3 tight, 3 blow-outs and 4 average games. Don't feel that's any different from normal or anything we shouldn't be expecting to see. Maybe people are just expecting and the games to come down to a couple of tanks.

That was 10 games in a row, I didn't miss any and only needed to watch one replay to confirm the time.


Edited by Fishfood50, 26 May 2019 - 04:47 PM.


killer etzi0 #13 Posted 26 May 2019 - 02:51 PM

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View PostPumpkinEcobar, on 26 May 2019 - 07:44 AM, said:

Anyone have a link to that old post where someone a whole lot smarter than me mathematically broke down why blow outs happen so easily?

And no, 15-8 is not a blow out.

 

Sports Analogy, basketball, a score of 100-50  would be considered a blow out, football, a score of 50-25 would be borderline blow out. The battle results and time of battle both are factors, if it's a 15-8 battle and over in 4 or 5 mins thats a blow out. imo

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Fishfood50 #14 Posted 26 May 2019 - 03:05 PM

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View PostPumpkinEcobar, on 26 May 2019 - 01:44 PM, said:

Anyone have a link to that old post where someone a whole lot smarter than me mathematically broke down why blow outs happen so easily?

And no, 15-8 is not a blow out.

 

http://forum-console.worldoftanks.com/index.php?/topic/52501-the-ruthless-math-of-wot/



PumpkinEcobar #15 Posted 26 May 2019 - 04:21 PM

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Yep, that is the link I was talking about. Thank you!



PumpkinEcobar #16 Posted 26 May 2019 - 04:24 PM

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View Postkiller etzi0, on 26 May 2019 - 08:51 AM, said:

 

Sports Analogy, basketball, a score of 100-50  would be considered a blow out, football, a score of 50-25 would be borderline blow out. The battle results and time of battle both are factors, if it's a 15-8 battle and over in 4 or 5 mins thats a blow out. imo

 

I see what your saying there. I look at tanks different than sports however. 

 

Or maybe it's that I'm a Razorback fan, when we get blown out its way worst than that, lol. 



killer etzi0 #17 Posted 28 May 2019 - 12:09 PM

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And, about a 50% blow out rate last night.

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GrooIsNoLackey #18 Posted 28 May 2019 - 12:35 PM

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View Postkiller etzi0, on 26 May 2019 - 02:51 PM, said:

 

Sports Analogy, basketball, a score of 100-50  would be considered a blow out, football, a score of 50-25 would be borderline blow out. The battle results and time of battle both are factors, if it's a 15-8 battle and over in 4 or 5 mins thats a blow out. imo

 

This analogy doesn't work because in sports you don't have to remove a player every time someone scores. 

killer etzi0 #19 Posted 28 May 2019 - 01:19 PM

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View PostGrooIsNoLackey, on 28 May 2019 - 06:35 AM, said:

 

This analogy doesn't work because in sports you don't have to remove a player every time someone scores. 

 

Sure it does, the analogy is tied to the end game results, regardless of how they are arrived at. Any type of an event, where the wining team out performs the losing team by 50%+ is a one-sided victory, imo.

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GrooIsNoLackey #20 Posted 28 May 2019 - 01:44 PM

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View Postkiller etzi0, on 28 May 2019 - 01:19 PM, said:

 

Sure it does, the analogy is tied to the end game results, regardless of how they are arrived at. Any type of an event, where the wining team out performs the losing team by 50%+ is a one-sided victory, imo.

 

Using your 50% than a 14-7 game in football is a blow out? So is 2-1 in a baseball game a blowout? I just don't think you can use 50% as the standard. 




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