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The Ruthless math of WoT.

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CurtKaine785 #21 Posted 17 September 2014 - 01:42 AM

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View PostTKoddaL33, on 06 September 2014 - 03:55 AM, said:

Math or not it doesn't matter. It's all about what barrel is coming out of that tank.

 

this be untrue. i've killed many a tank with tiny guns.

 

great post OP, hopefully some learn the jedi way.



XxDAFFYxxDUCKxX #22 Posted 17 September 2014 - 01:47 AM

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View PostCurtKaine785, on 17 September 2014 - 02:42 AM, said:

 

this be untrue. i've killed many a tank with tiny guns.

 

great post OP, hopefully some learn the jedi way.

 

Indeed. A derp may ease the ability to kill the enemy, but that means more stress is placed on the ones who are still there while the derp is reloading...That's why I like RoF guns, they are able to put in small amounts of damage to areas or tanks that a derp simply couldn't reload/aim for in time.

R.I.P. Lucky the cat, (2-24-14) you magnificent bastard.

Click here to learn about the math of WoT!


PeekABoo GOTCHA #23 Posted 17 September 2014 - 02:24 AM

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View PostXxDAFFYxxDUCKxX, on 17 September 2014 - 12:32 AM, said:

 

Yeah, usually muting the little ones is a common job around here. If you are looking for platoon mates, or even a mentor, ask around in the looking for a platoon section here. There's always someone around to help out. Hope I helped your conundrum out!

 

Thanks again DAFFY! I'll check out that platoon section pronto. It would really be nice to have a true partner sometimes.

ooV Gollum Voo #24 Posted 17 September 2014 - 08:47 AM

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This is a good read. I enjoyed it very much and can say that that's exactly how I see most matches pan out while scouting. Sometimes my eyes are WAY more powerful than my gun. Situational awareness is key. Good post though. Enjoyed the read


GestapoFish #25 Posted 18 September 2014 - 12:12 AM

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Wish I hadn't figured this out, but here it goes:

 

Assuming there is an even chance of winning any given match (p = .5) here are the 95% confidence intervals for various numbers of battles based on the formula p +/- tinv(alpha, n-1) * sqrt(p*(p-1)/n).

p = probability of a win,

n = number of trials (battles)

tinv() is the inverse student's t-distribution

alpha = confidence level

 

 

Battles Lower Upper
10 14% 86%
15 22% 78%
25 29% 71%
50 36% 64%
100 40% 60%
250 44% 56%
1000 47% 53%
2000 48% 52%
5000 49% 51%

 

The confidence interval represents values of the parameter for which the value of sample statistic is not statistically significant at the 05% confidence level.  Treating your win rate as a sample of your actual skill, if your win rate after n many battles is within the given range, then it is likely due to chance.  [edit: said another way, if your win rate is outside this range it is likely reflective of your skill level in that vehicle.]  This is somewhat imprecise, but if taken with a grain of salt this should give you an idea of whether you are lucky or good/bad.

 

If you want to get more specific, you can use the above formula with the WN8 or noobmeter value for expected win percentage for a specific tank as (p).

 

Example: The expWinRate for the Covenanter is 56.72%, the t-score after 20 battles is tinv(.05, 20-1) * sqrt (.5671*(.5671-1)/20) = .2319.

 

.5672 +/- .2319 = {.3353, .7991}  My win rate in the Convenanter after 20 battles is 80%, which could be due to skill, or could be due to luck.  Honestly, as imprecise as the meaning of confidence interval can be, I wouldn't worry about getting this precise with any given tank.  Getting +/- .001 more precision within a +/- .05 tolerance is kinda silly.

 

[edit: It was luck.  After 88 battles, my win rate is now 48%.  Still within the confidence interval, but my DC/DR and K/D also fell.]

 

Anyway, just another tool in the belt.  Knowing that after 100 battles a win rate of 50% +/- 10% is well within random chance might keep you from giving up on a tank, or keep you from thinking you're awesome in a tank when you're not.  This helped me realize that my 60% win rate in my VK 30.01 (H) was just luck and when it plummeted to 44% percent it was probably due to me thinking I was more awesome in that tank than I really was.

 

*I am reluctant to start new threads, but if someone thinks this is a new topic and not a continuation of "math" then feel free to repost it.  Heh heh, I have confidence issues.


Edited by GestapoFish, 08 November 2014 - 04:53 AM.

Apologies if my gamer tag offends you.  It is literally two random words that sounded fun to say, and I put zero thought in to it.

XxDAFFYxxDUCKxX #26 Posted 26 September 2014 - 02:46 PM

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No worries, Gestapo. I'll mark it out in the main thread

R.I.P. Lucky the cat, (2-24-14) you magnificent bastard.

Click here to learn about the math of WoT!


XxDAFFYxxDUCKxX #27 Posted 08 October 2014 - 04:47 PM

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Shameless bump is yet again shameless.

R.I.P. Lucky the cat, (2-24-14) you magnificent bastard.

Click here to learn about the math of WoT!


Dr Luigi Phd #28 Posted 07 November 2014 - 07:52 AM

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I have to say I have really enjoyed reading this thread and you guys made some excellent points. If only more tankers could read....


XxDAFFYxxDUCKxX #29 Posted 11 November 2014 - 05:29 PM

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View PostDr Luigi Phd, on 07 November 2014 - 07:52 AM, said:

I have to say I have really enjoyed reading this thread and you guys made some excellent points. If only more tankers could read....

 

Or understand basic math, for that matter.

R.I.P. Lucky the cat, (2-24-14) you magnificent bastard.

Click here to learn about the math of WoT!


Esgramor #30 Posted 15 January 2015 - 09:30 PM

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Excellent post the thought and effort is well appreciated. Hope to see those that see this acting just a little smarter lol. (one can hope)

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XxDAFFYxxDUCKxX #31 Posted 15 January 2015 - 09:36 PM

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Wow, someone actually clicked on my sig link. This was unexpected.

R.I.P. Lucky the cat, (2-24-14) you magnificent bastard.

Click here to learn about the math of WoT!


SteampunkPagan #32 Posted 20 January 2015 - 07:34 PM

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I really enjoyed reading the thread post and will have to think a bit about it and re-read it but, on first glance it looks right to me. I liked it so much I have shared it on our G+ community as well. 


“Who shot him? I asked. The grey man scratched the back of his neck and said: Somebody with a gun.” ― Dashiell Hammett, Red Harvest

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XxDAFFYxxDUCKxX #33 Posted 20 January 2015 - 07:57 PM

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View PostSteampunkPagan, on 20 January 2015 - 07:34 PM, said:

I really enjoyed reading the thread post and will have to think a bit about it and re-read it but, on first glance it looks right to me. I liked it so much I have shared it on our G+ community as well. 

 

Wow, thanks I guess. Make sure you give the credit to Zinegata though, he/she is a master of the math of WoT.

R.I.P. Lucky the cat, (2-24-14) you magnificent bastard.

Click here to learn about the math of WoT!


SteampunkPagan #34 Posted 20 January 2015 - 08:02 PM

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View PostXxDAFFYxxDUCKxX, on 20 January 2015 - 02:57 PM, said:

 

Wow, thanks I guess. Make sure you give the credit to Zinegata though, he/she is a master of the math of WoT.

 

good thinking so I also linked the PC thread.

“Who shot him? I asked. The grey man scratched the back of his neck and said: Somebody with a gun.” ― Dashiell Hammett, Red Harvest

"Arrête! C'est ici l'empire de la Mort"

"Si vis pacem, para bellum"


CassandraSaturn #35 Posted 20 January 2015 - 09:27 PM

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Great post. Zerg sure have it in mind regarding WoT.

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Sergeant Larson #36 Posted 22 January 2015 - 11:24 AM

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View PostAGuyNamedMike, on 05 September 2014 - 12:31 PM, said:

Also, I'll yank this quote from the original thread:

 

In addition to just being able to overpower the enemy through superior HP and damage output, numbers also allow for surrounding and flanking maneuvers. This on top of the simple mathematics is why I hate to be on the receiving end of a lemming team.
.
Imagine a fight with 12 tanks and 3 arty per side.
.
Evenly distributed team sends 6 tanks to both flanks, the lemming team sends 10 tanks to the west and 2 to the east.
.
West flank: 10 against 6- 67% advantage in favour of the lemmings
East flank: 6 against 2- 200% advantage in favour of the evenly distributed team.
.
And then the lemmings wonder why the undermanned flank is barely a speedbump to the enemy team. 

 

Never did the math, but this is truly how it goes. What you forgot to mention was the fact that the East flank is probably comprised of mediums(like myself who had the speed and awareness to redeploy) and is under constant arty barrage with little to no arty support! Kudos to Daffy for bringing this to people's attention. We've all experienced the math while in battle, but to have it brought into the light of day is nice.:honoring:

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XxDAFFYxxDUCKxX #37 Posted 22 January 2015 - 05:03 PM

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View PostSergeant Larson, on 22 January 2015 - 11:24 AM, said:

 

Never did the math, but this is truly how it goes. What you forgot to mention was the fact that the East flank is probably comprised of mediums(like myself who had the speed and awareness to redeploy) and is under constant arty barrage with little to no arty support! Kudos to Daffy for bringing this to people's attention. We've all experienced the math while in battle, but to have it brought into the light of day is nice.:honoring:

 

Of course, to really count in ALL of the factors would be a total nightmare, let alone RNG. This gives a simplified view of how battles essentially work.

R.I.P. Lucky the cat, (2-24-14) you magnificent bastard.

Click here to learn about the math of WoT!


SteampunkPagan #38 Posted 22 January 2015 - 07:55 PM

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View PostXxDAFFYxxDUCKxX, on 22 January 2015 - 12:03 PM, said:

 

Of course, to really count in ALL of the factors would be a total nightmare, let alone RNG. This gives a simplified view of how battles essentially work.

 

It also gives a very strong argument for platooning, staying as together as possible and concentrating fire in my opinion. The below link was passed on to me and uses much the same math to highlight these points.

 

http://forum.worldof...ration-of-fire/


“Who shot him? I asked. The grey man scratched the back of his neck and said: Somebody with a gun.” ― Dashiell Hammett, Red Harvest

"Arrête! C'est ici l'empire de la Mort"

"Si vis pacem, para bellum"


XxDAFFYxxDUCKxX #39 Posted 23 January 2015 - 03:33 PM

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View PostSteampunkPagan, on 22 January 2015 - 07:55 PM, said:

 

It also gives a very strong argument for platooning, staying as together as possible and concentrating fire in my opinion. The below link was passed on to me and uses much the same math to highlight these points.

 

http://forum.worldof...ration-of-fire/

 

Yeah, the Chieftain is usually a pretty dang reliable source of information.

R.I.P. Lucky the cat, (2-24-14) you magnificent bastard.

Click here to learn about the math of WoT!


veetwin2 #40 Posted 24 January 2015 - 10:48 PM

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Great! All pinned threads should be removed except this one. Players should be locked out of the forum until they  read this. LOL




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