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The Ruthless math of WoT.

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Paladin LM17 #61 Posted 16 October 2015 - 10:17 PM

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View Postreal FUGAR, on 16 October 2015 - 08:53 PM, said:

> Defeat in detail. My strategy is 1:10 my tactic 10:1.  Try 1:2   2:1 for WOT

>Focus Fire see above, maximise damage take a shot at a more distant exaust pipe rather than a nearer front plate.

>Lemming Train dont get caught up with 10 tanks bouncing into each other trying to surround 1 single red while Your base and arty get overrun.


 

My best games are when everyone else dies in chivalric standoff duels just wearing the reds down so Much that i can drive by and sack the kills for myself while being just ignored by reds like wearing a stealth hood :trollface:

...



PirateTanker #62 Posted 24 October 2015 - 08:42 PM

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Great post deserves a bump!!!! Teamwork wins!

Orbtastic1 #63 Posted 25 October 2015 - 08:23 PM

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I still don't understand AFKers - So one minute you're clicking launch game, the next you're nowhere to be found for the next 15 minutes or more? I also don't understand fail platooning - You're both gimping the team to the point where you're automatically making it increasingly harder for your TEAM to win a game.

 

I have just given up spamming "defend the base" when that's what the team is supposed to be doing. Yes, once in a while you rushing one flank will cause the other team to collapse and maybe you catch arty and some slower tanks by surprise but 99/100, you are automatically putting your team at a massive disadvantage by rushing off and meeting them head-on. You've got the advantage of picking your ground, cover and setting up a web of withering concentrated AT fire with spotters and what, you just p1ss it away by running around like headless chickens. I just don't get it, at all. You might as well throw your controller in the bin, it's going to do as much good.

 

Same with sitting on the spawn or base when you're top tier - You can't bloody spot anything, nevermind shoot it until the dying embers of the game are sitting on your face. Get forward, cohesively with the team and use your strengths to help the team. Instead they expect paper armoured tanks do their work then sit there spamming "help" when the team gets melted and huff and puff about being peppered from all sides whilst arty rains on their parade.



FATAL ASSERTION #64 Posted 30 January 2016 - 12:37 PM

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This post covers what is still one of the most important concepts that too few players are cognizant of.  I remember reading this a long time ago, but lately I think the need to dig this up has been great.  Thanks for the post and for the link to the guide by Zinegata.


killer etzi0 #65 Posted 30 January 2016 - 04:37 PM

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Great information op, thank you for taking the time to think it through and put those thoughts into a understandable post. In reference to the 1HP tank still reeking havoc... early this morning running solo in the Hellcat, Ruinberg War, game starts and 5 or 6 of us head to the open area away from the city. We engage several opfor tanks and start taking them out one by one, I am looking at the mini map and there is a opfor heavy almost dead near me and we have 3 nearly full health tanks working him over. I decide not to take the kill shot on him and move past to engage other opfor closer to their base, after a minute or so I suddenly get blasted from behind and I am thinking "where the heck did that come from?!?!" then I realize, the low health heavy is still alive and destroyed the THREE green tanks that had him surrounded... and yes I was next because I had no cover behind me.... I will not be passing up any kill shots regardless of how low health the tank is... we lost that battle because of the poor decision on my part.

"When you can't make them see the light, make them feel the heat."

 

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XxDAFFYxxDUCKxX #66 Posted 30 January 2016 - 07:34 PM

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My thread, doth my eyes betray me?

R.I.P. Lucky the cat, (2-24-14) you magnificent bastard.

Click here to learn about the math of WoT!


JMan1701 #67 Posted 30 January 2016 - 08:44 PM

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Excellent read... Very glad you did s bit of necromancy on this.  

 

Mostly it it comes down to teamwork and coordination being appropriately OP.


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AngryL0AF #68 Posted 29 April 2016 - 07:26 AM

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I'm I the only one whose mind went to Lanchesters Laws?

AngryL0AF #69 Posted 29 April 2016 - 07:36 AM

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Oh, and great post.

Tinsera #70 Posted 29 April 2016 - 09:00 AM

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Really well done, thanks for posting.

SpartanFire71 #71 Posted 04 May 2016 - 04:10 AM

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Just bumping to top.  Don't worry about who gets kills, just focus fire on one tank until it's dead, or the ruthless math has a high chance of causing a loss.

There are still some severe frustrations, but I still love to play.

 

 

 


Mahrs #72 Posted 09 May 2016 - 11:09 PM

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This was a great break down on something I was only just starting to grasp fully.  I had not really sat down to think about it.  It's good for expectation management too as I get into weapons with more alpha, but a slower rate of fire.

DStegCat #73 Posted 06 June 2016 - 04:22 PM

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Leave Spawn.

Isolated Skirmishes begin.

Check map.  Count Spotted.  Determine what's still unaccounted for.

Coordinated Focus Fire at weak spots.

Notice enemy fire.   Count reload times of enemy.

Win your skirmish.  Win game.

 

Just wanted to bump this thread.

 


nam et ipsa scientia potestas est (for knowledge is itself power)  Francis Bacon - 1597

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EamonnanChnoic #74 Posted 03 February 2017 - 01:19 PM

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Why is this great thread not stickied somewhere?

 

Every time someone asks why blow-outs or skunks happen I point them to this thread.


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I love Light Tanks


MendicantBias21 #75 Posted 09 February 2017 - 11:26 PM

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Very good post Daffy - thank you. Now I just hope the potatoes would read it as well. Kudos

its4urPrtection #76 Posted 24 February 2017 - 09:39 PM

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Wow that's a lot to read and I definitely didn't make it through the whole post but you could see where you are going with it. Great job though in essence if everyone played in clasn matches they would understand these concepts a little bit more because focus fire is a massive part of winning those things.

DStegCat #77 Posted 31 May 2017 - 09:43 PM

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A dead tank (returns fire no more) does no damage.   Finish the Focus Fire.

 

 

 

How often has that one shot wondered you or a teammate?


nam et ipsa scientia potestas est (for knowledge is itself power)  Francis Bacon - 1597

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GardogOne #78 Posted 06 June 2017 - 03:57 PM

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View PostXxDAFFYxxDUCKxX, on 05 September 2014 - 05:56 PM, said:

Alright, before I begin, I want to credit Zinegata for making this absolutely wonderful guide. I looked everywhere for it here, and EVERYONE needs to see this, plus, I don't want to be a jerk, so, thanks again Zinegata. http://forum.worldoftanks.com/index.php?/topic/227903-the-ruthless-math-of-wot-and-why-every-tank-matters/

For the original.

 

The Ruthless Math of World of Tanks

One of the major "debates" that rage in the forums is the ability of a single player to affect the entire course of the match. In general, the concensus is that a single tank can in fact affect the course of an entire match (often termed as a "carry";).

However, the problem with this "debate" is that it invariably boils down to what I call "win-rate makes me right" argument. We have some players who play solo and yet have very high win rates. Ergo, it is possible to "carry" a team all by yourself because the high win rates cannot simply be explained by "luck".

The problem with this approach is that it does very little to actually explain how such "carries" are actually possible. Often, we just get some pretty vague (and often bordering on mythical) explanations, usually centering around "skill".

This thread attempts to answer the "how". It will not be a discussion about skill or tactics (although it will reveal why some tactics are so vital). It will instead simply show the unbending gaming principles behind how WoT battles actually work - the "ruthless math" of the game, if you will.

The Key Concept: The Hitpoint Mechanic and Critical Existence Failure

To begin to understand the "math" of the game however, one crucial concept needs to be understood by the reader: "Critical Existence Failure" (henceforth abbreviated as "CEF";). And yes, I'm using the TV Tropes terminology; because it's more fun this way.

Basically, CEF is the model used by most games that use the hitpoint mechanic. Under this model, a unit can function at same level regardless if it was at full hitpoints, or if it was down to just 1 hitpoint. In WoT, it means a Sherman tank at 1 HP will still deal as much damage as a Sherman at full health. (And yes, I'm ignoring the module damage factor for now. See the side bar below)

What this means is that a 1 HP Sherman tank can potentially remain as effective as a Sherman with full HP. In fact, if the Sherman at full HP is an utterly bad player (whose shots keep missing or keep hitting spots that will just bounce the shell) it is entirely possible for a 1 HP Sherman to utterly demolish one at full health. I'm sure that most good players have done this one time or another, and it should already serve as an indication of how superior player knowledge ("skill";) can lead to a decisive difference on the field.

 

Spoiler                     
 

The Myth of 15 vs 15

However, in reality, most matches are not won by a 1 HP Sherman duelling a full HP Sherman to death. Many will in fact point out that matches involve 15 tanks on both sides. Cue boohooing about how one tank can't carry 14 others.

But in reality, matches are not actually grand battles of 15 vs 15. Instead, most matches are actually a series of smaller (sometimes inter-related) fights - which I will term as "skirmishes", with often just two to four tanks of either side fighting for a particular section of the map.

As an example, take your average Lakefield battle. Let's assume there's two arty per side, and relatively competent players on both sides. Each team will probably send 2-4 tanks into the valley, 1-2 tanks into the mid, and the remainder (7-10) going into town.

But even in the case of the town, that big group often actually gets divided into a bunch of smaller skirmishes - with some tanks going to the lake shore, the others going to the church, and some hugging the map edge - none of which necessarilt interact with each other.

In fact, it is actually quite rare to see an outright slugging match involving more than 5 tanks from each side. Hence, the old excuse that "I'm just one tank out of fifteen" rings very hollow. You almost never actually fight 15 enemy tanks at a time at the point of contact. You will, in general, be fighting 2-4 enemy tanks, and you'll have about as many allies with you too.

And really, what tends to happen in a match is that the 15-man team will win some of these skirmishes, and then lose a couple of others. Your lake-shore team might overwhelm their counterparts, but your map-edge team might have similarly folded. Afterwards, the survivors of their respective skirmishes will make contact with each other into a series of new skirmishes; and the process is repeated until one team is wiped out.
 
Spoiler                     
Sidebar: One of the "skills" lacking in many players - yet few people seem to be able to articulate - is their inability to recognize that these small, localized skirmishes are actually happening. Most players will understand the Valley-Mid-Town dynamic of Lakeville for instance, but they don't further subdivide and understand that the town actually has multiple different areas of conflict. In part, I blame the minimap for this, which tends to be rather bad at representing how these skirmishes are actually seperated by buildings.

The Anatomy of a Skirmish, as Dictated by CEF

When people think of a 4 vs 4 match, they tend to think that it should result in a "fair" fight, wherein both sides essentially wiped each other out. And indeed, this is what sometimes happens - with only 1 or 2 badly damaged survivors emerging from the furball of 8 tanks.

But the reality of most skirmishes is actually different, especially if it involves players of different skills levels.

To demonstrate, let's construct a thought exercise. Let's assume we have two teams of four tanks apiece. Each tank has 450 HP and inflicts 120 damage with each shot (so 4 shots to kill an enemy tank). Let's assume both sides hit and penetrate 100% of the time (a bit unrealistic, but bear with me).

However, let's give Team A a small but crucial advantage. Let's assume that Team A knows how to focus-fire, while Team B does not. Team B's tanks will only shoot their opposite-numbered tank, until that tank is destroyed.

Given this setup, the following will happen:

* At Start:
Team A Tank 1: 450 HP
Team A Tank 2: 450 HP
Team A Tank 3: 450 HP
Team A Tank 4: 450 HP

Team B Tank 1: 450 HP
Team B Tank 2: 450 HP
Team B Tank 3: 450 HP
Team B Tank 4: 450 HP

* After First Volley:
Team A Tank 1: 330 HP
Team A Tank 2: 330 HP
Team A Tank 3: 330 HP
Team A Tank 4: 330 HP
Total Damage Done: 450

Team B Tank 1: DESTROYED
Team B Tank 2: 450 HP
Team B Tank 3: 450 HP
Team B Tank 4: 450 HP
Total Damage Done: 480

* After Second Volley:
Team A Tank 1: 330 HP
Team A Tank 2: 210 HP
Team A Tank 3: 210 HP
Team A Tank 4: 210 HP
Total Damage Done: 900

Team B Tank 1: DESTROYED
Team B Tank 2: DESTROYED
Team B Tank 3: 450 HP
Team B Tank 4: 450 HP
Total Damage Done: 840

* After Third Volley:
Team A Tank 1: 330 HP
Team A Tank 2: 210 HP
Team A Tank 3: 90 HP
Team A Tank 4: 90 HP
Total Damage Done: 1350

Team B Tank 1: DESTROYED
Team B Tank 2: DESTROYED
Team B Tank 3: DESTROYED
Team B Tank 4: 450 HP
Total Damage Done: 1080

* After Fourth Volley:
Team A Tank 1: 330 HP
Team A Tank 2: 210 HP
Team A Tank 3: 90 HP
Team A Tank 4: DESTROYED
Total Damage Done: 1800

Team B Tank 1: DESTROYED
Team B Tank 2: DESTROYED
Team B Tank 3: DESTROYED
Team B Tank 4: DESTROYED
Total Damage Done: 1170

Rather different from the expectation of mutual annihilation, isn't it?

Indeed, by simply focus-firing, Team A was able to inflict 50% more damage than Team B, while preserving the life of 3 tanks which can now be redeployed elsewhere for decisive effect! How did this happen?

Well, I promised the math, and here it is. What we're witnessing is what is called the "snowball effect" - wherein something of seemingly minor importance suddenly balloons into something more dangerous and disastrous.

In this case, the disaster began when Team B lost its first tank during the first volley. Because of CEF, Team B lost 25% of its firepower at this moment - firepower that could have inflicted another 360 points of damage had Tank 1 survived to fire for the remaining 3 volleys. That's actually enough damage to destroy two of Team A's remaining tanks! (Tank 2 & 3 have only 300 HP remaining in total)

Thus, the loss of just one tank was the difference between Team A winning with 3 surviving tanks instead of just 1 surviving tank. It was, in all likelihood, also difference in winning the whole match overall.

And really, if you actually take a while to look at how skirmishes develop, you'll notice this pattern often when your team is winning: After your team destroys one tank, the second kill comes faster, and the third even faster, until the enemy team seemingly collapses like a house of cards. It's all because each and every gun matters in these skirmishes - once the enemy team has fewer tanks your team is now much more able to focus-fire and bring down enemy tanks in rapidity, while the enemy has much less firepower to throw back at you.

So when people stress the importance of focus-fire and target prioritization, listen. Because the snowball effect of losing just one tank can cascade to victory or defeat for a specific skirmish, which in turn can win or lose an entire match.

That being said, it must be noted that focus-fire situations are actually pretty rare. Most players are now smart enough not to just expose themselves and let themselves be shot at by multiple players at a time. With peak-a-boo tactics, even skirmishes of 4 vs 4 tanks may in reality turn into 1 vs 1 engagements.

Hence, the need to create situations where you can rapidly kill an enemy tank - a technique which I call the "isolation".
 
Spoiler                     
Sidebar: The above math should also demonstrate to people the utter folly of camping at the base cap. Yes, it is okay to camp at a good firing position as long you're actually firing and dealing damage to the enemy; thus helping win some of the skirmishes. No, it is totally NOT okay to camp at the cap circle where you will not be shooting at anything 90% of the time, and the remaining 10% you're just shooting at scouts when it's already too damn late. Burn this reality into your brains: Every tank matters. Deserters will be shot!


====

A Game of Isolations

"Isolation" is the art of bringing as much firepower to bear on an enemy tank - with the intent of rapidly destroying it - while at the same time preventing your own forces from being exposed to lethal fire from the enemy.

As I already noted before, most players don't sit out in the open anymore shooting at each other. They'll often use cover and try to at least make themselves a harder target for the enemy. The 4vs4 example I showed above should not literally play out that way in real matches (hence why it's a thought exercise).
What instead happens is that good players are constantly moving and maneuvering, looking for a way to create a situation wherein they can quickly gang up on an enemy tank without suffering much return fire - preferrably only from the target tank.

In fact, a well-played isolation is how "skunks" (matches wherein one team loses no tanks, while the enemy is wiped out) actually happen. Again, let's do the thought exercise thing, but this time with Team A doing isolations instead of focus fire...

*At Start:
Team A Tank 1: 450 HP
Team A Tank 2: 450 HP
Team A Tank 3: 450 HP
Team A Tank 4: 450 HP

Team B Tank 1: 450 HP
Team B Tank 2: 450 HP
Team B Tank 3: 450 HP
Team B Tank 4: 450 HP

After First Volley:
Team A Tank 1: 330 HP
Team A Tank 2: 450 HP
Team A Tank 3: 450 HP
Team A Tank 4: 450 HP
Total Damage Done: 450

Team B Tank 1: ISOLATED, DESTROYED
Team B Tank 2: 450 HP
Team B Tank 3: 450 HP
Team B Tank 4: 450 HP
Total Damage Done: 120

After Second Volley:
Team A Tank 1: 330 HP
Team A Tank 2: 330 HP
Team A Tank 3: 450 HP
Team A Tank 4: 450 HP
Total Damage Done: 900

Team B Tank 1: ISOLATED, DESTROYED
Team B Tank 2: ISOLATED, DESTROYED
Team B Tank 3: 450 HP
Team B Tank 4: 450 HP
Total Damage Done: 240

After Third Volley:
Team A Tank 1: 330 HP
Team A Tank 2: 330 HP
Team A Tank 3: 330 HP
Team A Tank 4: 450 HP
Total Damage Done: 1350

Team B Tank 1: ISOLATED, DESTROYED
Team B Tank 2: ISOLATED, DESTROYED
Team B Tank 3: ISOLATED, DESTROYED
Team B Tank 4: 450 HP
Total Damage Done: 360

After Fourth Volley:
Team A Tank 1: 330 HP
Team A Tank 2: 330 HP
Team A Tank 3: 330 HP
Team A Tank 4: 330 HP
Total Damage Done: 1800

Team B Tank 1: DESTROYED
Team B Tank 2: DESTROYED
Team B Tank 3: DESTROYED
Team B Tank 4: DESTROYED
Total Damage Done: 480

In this case, not only did Team A come out without losing a single tank, but they not inflicted more than 3x the damage of the enemy team!

And really, this is how the "unicums" actually achieve most of their wins. It is not about some mythical "skill" requiring better gunnery or whatnot. Instead, it revolves around the ability to pick out vulnerable (but important) enemy tanks in the pack, rapidly destroy them, which starts a snowball effect wherein the missing damage from the destroyed tanks rapidly adds up to their team's advantage.

More importantly, this can be achieved outside of platooning, so long as you remain constantly aware of how the game revolves around isolation. As a final thought experiment, let's do our Team A vs Team B thing again... only this time let's assume that Tank 1 of Team A is a skilled player who knows how to focus-fire...

At Start:
Team A Tank 1: 450 HP
Team A Tank 2: 450 HP
Team A Tank 3: 450 HP
Team A Tank 4: 450 HP

Team B Tank 1: 450 HP
Team B Tank 2: 450 HP (Focus-Fire Target)
Team B Tank 3: 450 HP
Team B Tank 4: 450 HP

After First Volley:
Team A Tank 1: 330 HP
Team A Tank 2: 330 HP
Team A Tank 3: 330 HP
Team A Tank 4: 330 HP
Total Damage Done: 480

Team B Tank 1: 450 HP
Team B Tank 2: 210 HP (Focus-Fire Target)
Team B Tank 3: 330 HP
Team B Tank 4: 330 HP
Total Damage Done: 480

After Second Volley:
Team A Tank 1: 210 HP
Team A Tank 2: 210 HP
Team A Tank 3: 210 HP
Team A Tank 4: 210 HP
Total Damage Done: 930

Team B Tank 1: 450 HP
Team B Tank 2: DESTROYED (Old Focus-Fire Target)
Team B Tank 3: 210 HP
Team B Tank 4: 210 HP (New Target for our unicum, who assumes Tank 2 will target tank 3)
Total Damage Done: 960

After Third Volley:
Team A Tank 1: 90 HP
Team A Tank 2: 210 HP
Team A Tank 3: 90 HP
Team A Tank 4: 90 HP
Total Damage Done: 1320

Team B Tank 1: 450 HP (Last target, everyone is going after him now!)
Team B Tank 2: DESTROYED
Team B Tank 3: DESTROYED
Team B Tank 4: DESTROYED
Total Damage Done: 1080

After Fourth Volley:
Team A Tank 1: DESTROYED
Team A Tank 2: 210 HP
Team A Tank 3: 90 HP
Team A Tank 4: 90 HP
Total Damage Done: 1800

Team B Tank 1: DESTROYED
Team B Tank 2: DESTROYED
Team B Tank 3: DESTROYED
Team B Tank 4: DESTROYED
Total Damage Done: 1410

So despite Team B doing a little more damage than in the pure focus-fire example, and our unicum being the only casualty on Team A, his focus-fire efforts was actually enough to make his team still do 50% more damage overall, while leaving 3 of the 4 tanks intact. Heck, if Team A's Tank 2 had shielded our unicum, they would all have survived.

======
My own thoughts:
 

In addition to the above, you can also add in spotting damage to the mix, by having one tank go out and spot, and if said spotter is unseen, you effectively gain free damage without receiving enemy fire as well. This is a HUGE part as to why an unseen TD and a good spotter can utterly destroy a flank, and should be your go-to plan in part of playing well. (Not camping, but doing damage without getting damage in return.) 

 

So in summary, the "ruthless math" of the game, thanks to CEF and its snowball effect, revolves around the rapid destruction of enemy tanks to reduce the opposing team's firepower; while preserving your own team's damage-dealing ability. Keep even your 1 HP teammates alive because they can pump out damage that is the difference between victory and defeat. Just one tank out of four knowing how to focus-fire can lead to huge swings in a match.

Of course, real WoT matches involve much more than just the thought experiment highlighted above. It doesn't take into consideration things like tier mismatches (e.g. a Tier 6 skirmishing two Tier 5s), nor does it account for more random things like bounces, no-damage hits, or misses. The number of volleys to kill enemy tanks also isn't as neat in the game, with different tiers and different kinds of guns.

But what it does show is that if everyone is playing consistently, then each tank does matter. It's time to give up on the notion that you're just one tank out of fifteen. 

 

Thanks for reading this guys, and I hoped it helped. Once again, cannot credit Zinegata enough here.

 

Also, check out Gestapofish's add on in the second page.

 

Thank you!!!



Neokill #79 Posted 12 June 2017 - 04:29 AM

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Really good info, much appreciated

Compare tanks, packages, armor, and weak spots with actual console data: http://www.worldoftanksgameguide.com

 

 


killer etzi0 #80 Posted 12 June 2017 - 04:38 AM

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Ha, knew I read this thread a long time ago, but couldn't remember or find it when searching for it couple weeks back. This is the explanation of "steam roll" more than it is an deep dive into how 1 person can "carry" matches on a regular basis. 

"When you can't make them see the light, make them feel the heat."

 

Ronald Reagan
 

 





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